It’s a busy day ahead. The EU Summit and Brexit, U.S Politics, COVID-19 news updates, and U.S economic data are in focus.Earlier in the Day:
It’s was a relatively busy start to the day on the economic calendar this morning. The Aussie Dollar was in action early on, with economic data from China also in focus.
For the Aussie Dollar
September employment figures were in focus this morning.
Total employment fell by 29.5k in September, partially reversing a 111k jump from August. Economists had forecast a 35k decline.
Full employment fell by 20.1k, following a 36.2k increase in August. In September, the unemployment rate rose from 6.8% to 6.9%. Economists had forecast an increase to 7.1%.
According to the ABS,
The number of unemployed people increased by 11,300 people and was up by 228,100 over the year.
Compared to September 2019, full-time employment declined by 301,700, with part-time employment falling by 56,700.
The employment to population ratio fell by 0.2 points 60.3%.
While the unemployment rate increased, the participation rate fell by 0.1 points to 64.8%.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71375 to $0.71394 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar was down by 0.31% to $0.7140.
Out of China
The annual rate of inflation softened from 2.4% to 1.7% in September. Economists had forecast a softening to 1.8%. Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.2%, following a 0.4% rise in August. Economists had forecast a 0.3% rise.
Wholesale deflationary pressures picked up in September. The producer price index fell by 2.1%, following a 2.0% decline in August, year-on-year. Economists had forecast a 1.8% fall.
The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.71440 to $0.71379 upon release of the figures.
At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.09% ¥105.26 against the U.S Dollar, with the Kiwi Dollar down by 0.03% to $0.6655.
The Day Ahead:
For the EUR
It’s a relatively quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include finalized September inflation figures from France.
Barring a material revision from prelim figures, we would expect the stats to have a muted impact on the EUR.
Expect Brexit updates from the EU Summit later in the day to be the key driver on the day.
On the monetary policy front, ECB President Lagarde is due to speak later in the day. Expect any chatter on monetary policy and the economic outlook to influence.
While Brexit will likely be the key driver, market concerns over the latest rise in new COVID-19 cases will also test the EUR.
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.01% to $1.1747.
For the Pound
It’s a quiet day ahead on the economic calendar. There are no material stats due out, leaving the Pound in the hands of Brexit.
Failure to find common ground at the EU Summit later today could see British negotiators walk away. Expect a choppy day ahead…
At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.04% to $1.3017.
Across the Pond
It’s a busy day ahead for the U.S Dollar.
Key stats include Philly and NY State manufacturing PMI figures and the weekly jobless claims for the week ending 9th October.
Expect the weekly jobless claims and October’s Philly FED Manufacturing PMI to be the key drivers on the day.
Away from the economic calendar, U.S politics, and updates from Capitol Hill will also influence on the day.
The Dollar Spot Index was up by 0.02% to 93.400 at the time of writing.
For the Loonie
It’s a quiet day ahead, with no material stats to provide the Loonie with direction.
A lack of stats will leave the Loonie in the hands of the EIA crude oil inventory numbers due out later today.
Away from the economic calendar, market risk sentiment and COVID-19 news will also provide direction.
At the time of writing, the Loonie was down by 0.05% to C$1.3153 against the U.S Dollar.