The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1919 and 1.1909.
The Euro is trading nearly flat on Thursday, mirroring the price action in U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar. The volume is light and the price action relatively quiet as traders weighed mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials on the timing of a withdrawal of monetary stimulus.

At 12:05 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1936, up 0.0008 or +0.06%.
In economic news, German business morale rose by more than expected in June and hit its highest level since November 2018, an Ifo survey showed.

In other news, the dollar got some support overnight from two Fed officials saying that a period of higher inflation in the United States that could last longer than expected. But on Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell had said that price pressures should ease on their own.

Later today at 12:30 GMT, traders will get the chance to respond to U.S. economic reports on Final GDP, Core Durable Goods Orders, Goods Trade Balance and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Additionally, six Fed officials are due to speak, including New York Fed President John Williams, who on Tuesday said any conversation about when to adjust interest rates is still far off.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1848 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.2218, but in order to get there, the EUR/USD is going to have to take out a series of retracement levels.

The EUR/USD is currently trying to establish support inside a retracement zone at 1.1985 to 1.1919. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Forex pair.

The minor range is 1.1848 to 1.1970. Its pivot at 1.1909 is additional support.

On the upside, potential resistance is lined up at 1.2027, 1.2057 and 1.2106. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of these levels.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the EUR/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1919 and 1.1909.

Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 1.1919 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough intraday momentum then look for a surge into 1.1970 then 1.1985. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration into 1.2027.

Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.1909 will signal the presence of sellers. If this fails to hold then we could see a retest of the main bottom at 1.1848. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with 1.1704 the next major downside target.

Leave a comment