The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD into the close will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2151.
The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday after a Euro Zone report showed factories had their busiest month in three years. However, the entire economy is not out of the woods yet as lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus hammered the bloc’s dominant service industry.

IHS Markit’s flash composite PMI, seen as a good guide to economic health, nudged closer to the 50 mark separating growth from contraction, registering 48.1 in February compared to January’s 47.8. A Reuters poll had predicted 48.0. However, some of that activity was from completing old orders. The backlogs of work index fell to 47.9 from 49.0.
At 12:46 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.2134, up 0.0042 or +0.35%.

Later today at 14:45 GMT, the United States will release data on Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI. Both are expected to show slight decreases from the previous month’s readings.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.2190 will change the main trend to up. The downtrend will be reaffirmed on a trade through 1.1952.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.2170 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside. Taking out 1.2023 will indicate the selling is getting stronger.

The main retracement zone support is 1.2074 to 1.2010. This zone stopped the selling on Wednesday at 1.2023.

The short-term range is 1.2349 to 1.1952. Its retracement zone is potential resistance. It stopped the buying at 1.2170 on Tuesday. This zone is also controlling the upside direction of the EUR/USD.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The early price action suggests the direction of the EUR/USD into the close will be determined by trader reaction to 1.2151.

Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over 1.2151 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a labored rally with potential resistance coming in at 1.2170, 1.2190 and 1.2197.

The trigger point for a potential acceleration to the upside is 1.2197. The daily chart indicates there is not visible resistance until the January 6 main top at 1.2349.

Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under 1.2151 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create the downside momentum needed to challenge the main 50% level at 1.2074. This is followed by 1.2023 and 1.2010.

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